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The Price of Second Chances in Space
Blue Origin is gearing up for the second launch of its New Glenn rocket, slated for Sunday, November 9th. It’s a big moment for Jeff Bezos’ space venture, a crucial test after the first launch in January 2025 saw the upper stage reach orbit, but the booster was lost during landing. This time, the stakes are even higher, with NASA's ESCAPADE Mars mission riding on New Glenn's success.
The launch window is tight—between 2:45 and 5:11 p.m. ET from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Base. Blue Origin invested a cool $1 billion to rebuild that site, a figure that underscores the commitment—or perhaps the desperation—behind this launch. The company is, naturally, providing a livestream, because who doesn't love watching a potential explosion in high definition?
The core challenge remains the same: landing the first stage booster on the drone ship Jacklyn, hundreds of miles offshore. Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp's nonchalant "What if we don't stick the landing? That's OK" rings a little hollow. He claims they have more boosters in production, but each one represents a significant capital outlay. The first launch wasn’t a total loss, but losing a booster is akin to burning stacks of cash in the upper atmosphere.
New Glenn: Size Matters, But So Does Success
New Glenn, named for John Glenn, is a beast of a rocket, standing at 322 feet tall. That’s comparable to NASA’s SLS rocket, though still dwarfed by SpaceX’s Starship (around 400 feet). The rocket’s sheer size hints at its ambition: to carry large payloads, including Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellites, and to compete head-on with SpaceX in the commercial orbital spaceflight market.
This second launch isn't just a test flight; it’s a demonstration of viability. New Glenn is carrying NASA’s ESCAPADE mission to Mars, a pair of spacecraft designed to study solar winds. It's also hauling tech from Viasat for potential use in low-Earth orbit. This mission serves as a proof of concept, but also a revenue stream.
The question is, can Blue Origin deliver reliably, and at a competitive price? The loss of the first booster raises concerns about reusability, a key factor in driving down launch costs. Blue Origin claims the first stage is designed for at least 25 flights. That’s an optimistic projection, and if they can't nail the landings, those numbers are meaningless.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Blue Origin has the resources, the talent, and the ambition. But they're still playing catch-up to SpaceX, which has a proven track record of successful launches and landings. Blue Origin needs to demonstrate not just that New Glenn can reach orbit, but that it can do so consistently and cost-effectively.
The company’s other venture, New Shepard, gets a lot of press for its suborbital tourism flights. Katy Perry and Gayle King even took a ride (separately, it seems). But those flights, while generating revenue, are a different game entirely. New Glenn is about serious space infrastructure, and that requires a different level of precision and reliability.
Blue Origin's social media presence is predictably upbeat, filled with promotional videos and launch updates. But the online chatter I’m seeing on forums like r/SpaceX and r/BlueOrigin is more skeptical. There's a mix of excitement and apprehension, with many commenters questioning whether Blue Origin can truly compete with SpaceX. The sentiment is running maybe 60/40, cautiously optimistic but worried.
Another Missed Landing, Another Billion Down the Drain?
Blue Origin needs this launch to be a clear win. Not just an "upper stage reached orbit" win, but a "booster landed flawlessly" win. Anything less, and the questions about the company's ability to compete in the long term will only grow louder. The $1 billion investment in Launch Complex 36 is a sunk cost, but the future depends on turning that investment into a launchpad for success.